The Capital Metro EIS modelling assumed Flemington Rd south of Wells Station Dr would be duplicated to ease congestion caused by the single-lane merge for south-bound traffic, but only if the tram was built, despite the cost of these road works not being included in the final Capital Metro business case.
The ACT Government Environment and Planning Directorate noted this anomaly, which unfairly penalises the "without tram" car round-trip times in 2021 by 9.5 minutes. The first graph shows the EIS data, the second estimates round-trip times if the Flemington Rd duplication is applied to both scenarios.
The ACT Government TAMS also noted that the EIS omits intersection traffic and delays at Barton Highway for the "Project" PM case, underestimating the Civic-Gungahlin journey by an estimated 1:52. For full details, see "Capital Metro's EIS shows tram increases congestion and slows travel - but it is much worse than they admit"
The travel times listed in Table 10.6 and Table 10.9, including for the Gozzard Street to Well Station Drive section in the Base case AM scenario, are correct.
The travel time for the southbound AM peak travel on this section was forecast to be higher in the Base Case compared to the Project Case, primarily due to congestion experienced at the Well Station Drive intersection as a result of the two to one lane merge just south of the intersection.
In the Project Case, this section of Flemington Road is proposed to be upgraded to two lanes south of Well Station Drive, removing the congestion, and resulting in the Project Case performing better than the Base Case.
Source: Capital Metro Light Rail Stage 1 – Gungahlin to Civic Environmental Impact Statement Addendum Report, August 2015, page 19
That is, the tram "Project" case reduces travel time by 9.5 minutes on this section by assuming construction of additional road lanes on Flemington Road will be required as part of the project. A fairer comparison would assume these road lanes were also constructed in the "base" case, greatly reducing the 16:58 road journey time from Gozzard to Wells Station. Note, the Capital Metro Business Case does not include the cost of these road works.
As TAMS noted, the EIS also omits traffic and South-North intersection delays at Barton Highway for the "Project" PM case, underestimating the Civic-Gungahlin journey by an estimated 1:52. For full details, see "Capital Metro's EIS shows tram increases congestion and slows travel - but it is much worse than they admit"
"Thousands and thousands of public servants – isolated in Russell right now, where they cannot connect to the city centre easily and effectively, even during their lunch hour. So let's look at the opportunity that comes from connecting them now."
Quoted in Next stop Russell? Government loves light rail extension options, Tom McIlroy, Canberra Times, 11 August 2015.
The ACT Government claimed that light rail will “free up” one million bus kilometres (Mick Gentleman quoted in Canberra Times, 8 Nov 2015, "Gungahlin tram to free up more than one million bus kilometres, government says".
ACTION buses travelled 25.6 million km in 2014-15, and used 11 million litres of diesel and CNG to do so. Hence, “freeing up” one million km can be expected to save 1/25.6th, that is 430 kL of fuel, equating to 1160 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) (based on the EIS calculations, referenced below), which seems like a good thing to do.Capital Metro's estimate of 3,000 new public transport boardings across the network attributable to light-rail by 2031 implies an annual saving of 1210 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) from travellers foresaking cars for the tram.
However, Capital Metro's modelling of addition road congestion caused by the tram indicates an additional 780 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) will be generated by vehicles delayed at intersections along the proposed route.
The net annual reduction is 1591 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e), which will reduce over time as the vehicle fleet transitions to low emission and eventually, zero tailpipe emissions.
However, by 2021, ACTION would probably be following many other jurisdictions around the world in replacing diesel and CNG powered buses with electric buses, able to use the same 100% renewable power as the light rail, so these savings may be much smaller or even zero.
The carbon statement contained with the Capital Metro Development Application asserts construction of the light-rail route will generate the equivalent of 60,864 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases.
For a more detailed analysis, see Capital Metro - Green or Greenwash?.
There are currently 68 bus services running between Gungahlin Town Centre and Civic each weekday morning from 6:30 until 9:00 (Route 56 - 8, Route 57 - 8, Route 58 - 9, Red Rapid 2xx - 43).
These will all be replaced by 22 or 23 tram services, running on one route down Flemington Dr to Federal Highway, then to Dickson and Civic. There will be no buses at all running on Flemington Dr south of Wells Station Rd, or on Northbourne Av north of Antill St.
For details of bus replacements and the new routes, see the Capital Metro Draft EIS, Vol 3 Part 5, page 33-35. Images of these pages are also available here: page 33, page 34, page 35.
So, the three separate routes currently running straight down Flemington and through Franklin, Harrison, Mitchell are all to be replaced by the tram, and routes 56, 57, 58 will run as "feeder" services. Routes 56 and 58 form a loop crossing the tram at Gungahlin Town Centre and Wells Station. Route 57 services Mitchell from Gungahlin Town Centre, crossing Flemington only at Sandford St, but there will be no tram stop at Sandford St, making it very awkward to travel between Mitchel and North Canberra.
There are currently 68 bus services running between Gungahlin Town Centre and Civic each weekday morning from 6:30 until 9:00 (Route 56 - 8, Route 57 - 8, Route 58 - 9, Red Rapid 2xx - 43).
The average ACTION bus carries 45.4 people seated, 25.5 people standing, and 2 bicycles. (Bicycle racks will fitted to 98% of the fleet very soon.)
These buses will all be replaced by 22 or 23 tram services, running on one route down Flemington Dr to Federal Highway, then to Dickson and Civic.
The tram configuration is not finalised, but based on tender requirements, the trams will be 33m long and will probably carry 4 bicycles and between 48 and 60 people seated and between 136 and 148 standing. Although it is unlikely there will be as many 60 seated, it is used in this Infographic as a "best case" figure.
The primary purpose of the AM peak service will be to carry passengers from Gungahlin to North Canberra and beyond.
To calculate the capacity per 1000 residents for 2015, the current Gungahlin population size and the current ACTION bus capacity on the Gungahlin to Civic routes was used.
To calculate the capacity per 1000 residents for 2021, the ACT Government's estimate of Gungahlin's population size in 2021 and Capital Metro's proposed service frequencies and tram capacities were used.
Average combined AM and PM peak period vehicle speed over the road network around the proposed route (not just traffic on the direct route) decreases from 27.8 km/hr without light-rail to 23.1 km/hr with light-rail.
Reference: Capital Metro Draft EIS, Volume 3, Technical Paper 5: Traffic and Transport, Table 4.2, page 38.
The EIS's analysis of intersection performance over AM and PM peaks shows that the combined number of intersections at which traffic will exceed capacity more than triples from 2 without light-rail to 7 with light-rail.
Further, the combined number of intersections which will be operating at the limits of their capacity doubles from 3 without light-rail to 6 with light-rail.
Reference: Capital Metro Draft EIS, Volume 3, Technical Paper 5: Traffic and Transport, Table 4.5 to 4.10, pages 41 to 45.
The ACTION 2014 timetable, before construction work on Constitution Av simulated one lane traffic (for example, Route 4), shows an 8 minute travel time from Russell to Civic (and also Civic to Russell) during lunchtime.
ACTION 2015 services to Russell: ACTION Routes by number - routes 4, 5, 9, 11, 200 and the peak hour express services 251, 252, 259 712, 714, 717, 743, 744, 765, 767, 775, 791, 792.
Russell tram frequency: 6 minutes peak period, 10 minutes during the day, 15 minute trip: Light rail development applications provide detailed picture of how Canberra system will look, ABC News, October 2015
Simon Corbell, seemingly oblivious to the current excellent frequent and fast ACTION services connecting Russell, promoted their replacement by fewer and slower trams, saying:
"Thousands and thousands of public servants – isolated in Russell right now, where they cannot connect to the city centre easily and effectively, even during their lunch hour. So let's look at the opportunity that comes from connecting them now."
Next stop Russell? Government loves light rail extension options, Tom McIlroy, Canberra Times, 11 August 2015.
Time breakdown:
Total time: 56 minutes, leaving 4 minutes at the cafe to order and eat lunch.
By way of comparison, each ACTION bus trip is 8 minutes, saving 7 minutes each way, and average ACTION bus wait time is 3 minutes (10 services per hour), saving 2 minutes each way, for a total round-trip saving of 18 minutes. As a result, catching a bus means you have 22 minutes, rather than 4 minutes, to eat your lunch and still get back to your desk at Russell within an hour..
The ACTION 2014 timetable, before construction work on Constitution Av simulated one lane traffic (for example, Route 4), shows an 8 minute travel time from Russell to Civic (and also Civic to Russell) during lunchtime.
ACTION 2015 services to Russell: ACTION Routes by number - routes 4, 5, 9, 11, 200 and the peak hour express services 251, 252, 259 712, 714, 717, 743, 744, 765, 767, 775, 791, 792.
Russell tram frequency: 6 minutes peak period, 10 minutes during the day, 15 minute trip: Light rail development applications provide detailed picture of how Canberra system will look, ABC News, October 2015
ACTION 2015 services from Gungahlin to Civic, 06:30 - 09:00: ACTION Routes by number - see Red Rapid services. The express 202 route has an average journey time of 22.5 minutes. The average journey time of all Red Rapid services is 29.6 minutes.
Capital Metro initially promised to meet the requirements of the ACT Government's Transport for Canberra: Transport for a sustainable city for a minimum 40km/hr trip time. This commitment was silently removed from the Capital Metro website in mid-2014.
The Capital Metro Business case then promised a 25 minute journey, at an average speed of 28.8 km/hr. However, the speeds required have yet to be approved by the rail safety regulator, and the traffic signal priority required is the cause of much of the congestion and delays light-rail will bring to North Canberra's road network.
The just-completed Gold Coast light-rail has an average journey speed of 21 km/hr, but has a slightly higher station density. Correcting for the fewer stations on Capital Metro gives an estimated journey time of 32 minutes.
The Capital Metro EIS Traffic and Transport Appendix B, Table B1.3 and Table B2.3 model is the source of the shown intersection delays.
For more details, see the discussion here.
ACTION 2015 costs: The Canberra Times, 27 October 2015, quotes a review of ACTION operations stating a public subsidy of $7.20 per passenger boarding being 83% of the cost, giving a total cost per boarding of $8.67.
Tram passenger costs: see the analysis in A brief analysis of Capital Metro's business case for light-rail, Framing the contract to fairly reward the developers and operators if the Business Case is accurate, and to protect the community if it is not
Tram costs based on forecasts of Capital Metro Business Case being met. The "agency costs" of running Capital Metro have already increased since the Business Case was released.
Shared automonous car costs based on 45 cent flagfall and 25 cents/km for a 12 km journey, including complete commercial costs and operator profit. See Canberra Autonomous Car Simulation for full details and comparisons with other autonomous fleet cost projections which simulate very similar costs.
AM and PM cumulative delays at intersections on the route increase by 614 hours each day, or 44% with light rail in 2021, compared to the "no light rail" scenario in 2021 according to modelling performed by Capital Metro for the EIS (more details).
Greenhouse gases caused by intersection delays will increase by more than this however, because vehciles will need to brake and accelerate more frequently under the high congestion conditions caused by light-rail.
The ACT Government claimed that light rail will “free up” one million bus kilometres (Mick Gentleman quoted in Canberra Times, 8 Nov 2015, "Gungahlin tram to free up more than one million bus kilometres, government says".
ACTION buses travelled 25.6 million km in 2014-15, and used 11 million litres of diesel and CNG to do so. Hence, “freeing up” one million km can be expected to save 1/25.6th, that is 430 kL of fuel, equating to 1160 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) (based on the EIS calculations, referenced below), which seems like a good thing to do. However, by 2021, ACTION would probably be following many other jurisdictions around the world in replacing diesel and CNG powered buses with electric buses, able to use the same 100% renewable power as the light rail, so these savings may be much smaller or even zero.
Capital Metro's estimate of 3,000 new public transport boardings across the network attributable to light-rail by 2031 implies an annual saving of 1210 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) from travellers foresaking cars for the tram.
However, Capital Metro's modelling of addition road congestion caused by the tram indicates an additional 780 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e) will be generated by vehicles delayed at intersections along the proposed route.
The net annual reduction is 1591 tons of greenhouse gases (CO2-e), which will reduce over time as the vehicle fleet transitions to low emission and eventually, zero tailpipe emissions.
The carbon statement contained with the Capital Metro Development Application asserts construction of the light-rail route will generate the equivalent of 60,864 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases.
For a more detailed analysis, see Capital Metro - Green or Greenwash?.
Updated December 2015: incorporate latest ACTION timetable
